Google DeepMind Develops AI for More Accurate Hurricane Forecasting
Google DeepMind has unveiled WeatherNext Cyclones, an AI model that predicts the path and intensity of tropical cyclones more than a day faster than traditional systems.
What happened?
Researchers at Google DeepMind have developed the AI model WeatherNext Cyclones to predict the paths, intensity, and wind spread of tropical cyclones. In evaluations, the model provided an average lead-time advantage of over 24 hours compared to leading operational weather systems. For five-day forecasts, the model showed an average track error of 230 kilometres, compared to 370 kilometres for the ECMWF ENS system and 335 kilometres for DeepMind's previous GenCast model.
Key facts
| Genomsnittligt banfel vid 5 dygn | 230 km (WeatherNext Cyclones) |
|---|---|
| Banfel ECMWF ENS vid 5 dygn | 370 km |
| Banfel GenCast vid 5 dygn | 335 km |
| Maximalt antal stormscenarier | 1 000 scenarier per körning |
Why it matters
By generating ensembles of up to 1,000 possible storm scenarios, forecasters can better assess uncertainties surrounding extreme weather. The model significantly improves the precision of both storm paths and the risk of rapid intensification, giving authorities more time to prepare for destructive winds.
Who is affected?
The development primarily concerns meteorological institutes, disaster management agencies, and researchers within the climate and weather forecasting sectors. The aviation and maritime industries, as well as emergency services, may also utilise these more precise five-day forecasts for planning and evacuations.
Impact on the EU
The model covers global weather data and is available to researchers and meteorological agencies worldwide, including in the EU. It adheres to EU practices regarding open climate data and collaboration in meteorological research.
What else you should know
The model's ability to rapidly generate up to 1,000 different scenarios allows meteorologists to better assess the probability of both rapid intensification and extreme wind spread during tropical cyclones.
Quick answers about this story
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Hur fungerar scenarioplanneringen i WeatherNext Cyclones?
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